 |
© Wilfredo Lee/AP Photo -In this March 9, 2016, photo,
Democratic presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie
Sanders, I-Vt., stand together before the start of the Univision,
Washington Post Democratic presidential debate at Miami-Dade College in
Miami.
|
Hillary Clinton had hoped
Tuesday's primaries in five states in the South and Midwest would cement
her grip on the Democratic presidential nomination. Instead, they’re expected to make
clear the race will be a slog for many weeks.
Clinton holds a wide lead in
Florida and North Carolina, but recent polls show a tight race in Missouri
and Sanders narrowing her advantage in Illinois and Ohio. After the
Vermont senator pulled off a surprise victory last week in Michigan, closing a
20-point gap in polls, backers of both candidates expect more gains
for Sanders on Tuesday.
“Ohio’s going to be the same,”
said Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, who is backing Clinton. “It’s going to be a tough
race down to the wire.”
The Sanders campaign believes a
strong showing on Tuesday could lead to momentum in places like Arizona,
which holds its primary on March 22, further disproving the Clinton campaign’s
contention that the Vermont senator is a regional candidate who appeals
mainly to white liberals and working-class northeasterners.
Even if Sanders pulls off
an upset in Ohio or in Illinois — where Clinton was born and
raised — her status as the race's front-runner would remain unchanged,
given her lead of more than 200 pledged delegates. Delegates are awarded proportionally, and
she’s poised to collect the most on Tuesday.
“There are plenty of Democrats
and Clinton supporters who wish this nomination would have been wrapped up by
now,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Rothenberg
& Gonzales Political Report. “I still believe she will be the nominee.
It’s just taking longer than expected, and it’s evidence of a growing divide in
the Democratic Party,” he added.
What Tuesday's contests
could mean, though, is that Clinton will be forced to spend significantly
more time fending off attacks from Sanders as opposed to positioning herself
for the general election. This is especially problematic for her on the
issue of trade, an emotionally charged topic in industrial Midwestern states
and one that Republican front-runner Donald Trump is also emphasizing.
The close competition in states
like Illinois and Ohio demonstrates the difficulty Clinton is having in selling
her proposals for creating manufacturing jobs versus Sanders’ more visceral
focus on previous trade deals many voters believe contributed to the hollowing
out of the Rust Belt, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement, which
was signed into law by her husband in 1993.
“When you look at the trade
deals, NAFTA, CAFTA, Ohio has suffered massive losses,” said Jeff Rusnak,
Sanders’ Ohio state director. “There’s not a corner of this state that hasn’t
been touched.”
While Clinton points out that she
voted against the Central American trade deal as a U.S. senator, she once
called the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership the “gold standard," though
she has since opposed it.
“Her record has been really
distorted on this,” Kristina Schake, a Clinton communications director, said
Monday on MSNBC. “She’s been for some trade deals and against others.”
Sanders is also increasing his
focus on Clinton’s Wall Street ties, including calling on her to release
transcripts of her paid speeches to big banks.
“If you get $225,000 for a speech
it must be an incredibly brilliant speech,” Sanders said in Akron on
Monday. “If the speech is that great, she might want to release the
transcript and let the American people hear it.”
Meanwhile, during a late-morning
Chicago rally on Monday, Clinton urged supporters not to take anything for
granted.
“If there is an 'L' stop you can
go to or there’s a phone call you can make, if there’s a door you can knock on,
if there’s a person you can convince, please do everything you can in the next
24-plus hours," Clinton said at the Chicago Plumbers Union
hall.
Michigan exit polls showed her
trailing among voters earning between $30,000 and $50,000 a year, the
demographic most impacted by manufacturing job losses.
Clinton is relying on
African-American voters to turn out in greater numbers than they did in
Michigan after disappointing participation rates in areas like Detroit. On
Sunday, former president Bill Clinton made pitches at two area black churches.
Sanders probably has his best
chance in Illinois and Missouri.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll
gives Clinton a narrow lead in Illinois — 51% to 45% — while a CBS News survey
showed Sanders with a slight edge.
Sanders was in Chicago on Friday
and Saturday and he’s also attacking unpopular Mayor Rahm Emanuel, a
longtime Clinton ally. Sanders is running ads featuring local public
figures, including a school principal, talking about corruption in Chicago
politics. Another focuses on the death of Laquan McDonald, the 17-year-old
African-American shot and killed by Chicago police in 2014.
“Let me be as clear as I can be,”
Sanders said over the weekend. “Based on his disastrous record as mayor the
city of Chicago, I do not want Mayor Emanuel’s endorsement if I win the
nomination.”
Emanuel did not appear with
Clinton at the union hall in Chicago on Monday and has steered clear of the
Democratic frontrunner’s campaign events in the city for the last several
months.
Clinton has 1,234 total
delegates, including so-called superdelegates, more than half the amount needed
to clinch the nomination. Sanders has 579.
Her campaign has been sending
subtle signals that Sanders risks damaging the party’s chances in November if
he continues to bloody her during a protracted primary battle. Both in
smaller gatherings and during a recent Fox News forum in Detroit, Clinton has
spoken about how difficult it was for her to nudge her supporters toward Barack
Obama in 2008.
“When you get through a primary,
despite the emotions that are engineered in your supporters, you have to take
stock of where you are and who is running on the other side,” she said.
Still, some say there’s no reason
for Sanders to stand down anytime soon. “I don’t think Sanders has a lot
to lose by continuing his campaign,” said Gonzales.
“He has a larger platform than
he’s ever had before for his causes,” he said. Sanders, a longtime independent,
“has no real loyalty to the Democratic Party. He’s got plenty of money to run
the campaign.”
Contributing: Aamer Madhani
reporting from Chicago
Posting Komentar